tools: the write path -- an unwritable --json is rc 2, one line, never a traceback

Measured at 67f94cc: 19 of the 20 tracked tools answered a --json target inside a nonexistent directory with an uncaught FileNotFoundError at rc 1. Only queue_append_audit.py already refused (rc 2). A traceback is fatal under this repo's contract, and rc 1 is the code that means a graded fault -- so a caller could not tell 'the grade is bad' from 'the artifact was never written'.

Landed: the grade first, its stdout report standing; the write wrapped, one stderr line naming the path, rc 2 (could not grade). gate_blame.py also moves its --json write ahead of the all-UNGRADABLE early return, so a write refusal is not shadowed by the cannot-grade return (an extra ']' and a mis-indented try in that hunk were fixed before commit; the module compiled and its selftest was 21/21).

tools/write_probe.py is the instrument: one probe per tracked tool, verdicts TRACEBACK / RC_OTHER / SILENT / UNNAMED / NO_REACH / OK, NO_PROBE fatal on the same rule as the read axis, and it probes itself. It is leg 6 of verify.py, and selftest_sweep.py now carries both a read probe and a malformed probe for it.

Verification at this commit follows in the next commit with docs/TOOLS.md and the queue record.

tools/tool_map.py

@@ -497,9 +497,13 @@ def main():
     text = render(data)
 
     if args.json:
-        with open(args.json, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
-            json.dump(data, fh, indent=2, sort_keys=True)
-            fh.write("\n")
+        try:
+            with open(args.json, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
+                json.dump(data, fh, indent=2, sort_keys=True)
+                fh.write("\n")
+        except OSError as exc:
+            print("cannot write --json " + args.json + ": " + str(exc), file=sys.stderr)
+            return 2
         print(f"tool_map: wrote {args.json}")
 
     if args.write: