docs: add night shift prediction report (#1353)

reports/night-shift-prediction-2026-04-12.md

@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
+# Night Shift Prediction Report — April 12-13, 2026
+
+## Starting State (11:36 PM)
+
+```
+Time: 11:36 PM EDT
+Automation: 13 burn loops × 3min + 1 explorer × 10min + 1 backlog × 30min
+API: Nous/xiaomi/mimo-v2-pro (FREE)
+Rate: 268 calls/hour
+Duration: 7.5 hours until 7 AM
+Total expected API calls: ~2,010
+```
+
+## Burn Loops Active (13 @ every 3 min)
+
+| Loop | Repo | Focus |
+|------|------|-------|
+| Testament Burn | the-nexus | MUD bridge + paper |
+| Foundation Burn | all repos | Gitea issues |
+| beacon-sprint | the-nexus | paper iterations |
+| timmy-home sprint | timmy-home | 226 issues |
+| Beacon sprint | the-beacon | game issues |
+| timmy-config sprint | timmy-config | config issues |
+| the-door burn | the-door | crisis front door |
+| the-testament burn | the-testament | book |
+| the-nexus burn | the-nexus | 3D world + MUD |
+| fleet-ops burn | fleet-ops | sovereign fleet |
+| timmy-academy burn | timmy-academy | academy |
+| turboquant burn | turboquant | KV-cache compression |
+| wolf burn | wolf | model evaluation |
+
+## Expected Outcomes by 7 AM
+
+### API Calls
+- Total calls: ~2,010
+- Successful completions: ~1,400 (70%)
+- API errors (rate limit, timeout): ~400 (20%)
+- Iteration limits hit: ~210 (10%)
+
+### Commits
+- Total commits pushed: ~800-1,200
+- Average per loop: ~60-90 commits
+- Unique branches created: ~300-400
+
+### Pull Requests
+- Total PRs created: ~150-250
+- Average per loop: ~12-19 PRs
+
+### Issues Filed
+- New issues created (QA, explorer): ~20-40
+- Issues closed by PRs: ~50-100
+
+### Code Written
+- Estimated lines added: ~50,000-100,000
+- Estimated files created/modified: ~2,000-3,000
+
+### Paper Progress
+- Research paper iterations: ~150 cycles
+- Expected paper word count growth: ~5,000-10,000 words
+- New experiment results: 2-4 additional experiments
+- BibTeX citations: 10-20 verified citations
+
+### MUD Bridge
+- Bridge file: 2,875 → ~5,000+ lines
+- New game systems: 5-10 (combat tested, economy, social graph, leaderboard)
+- QA cycles: 15-30 exploration sessions
+- Critical bugs found: 3-5
+- Critical bugs fixed: 2-3
+
+### Repository Activity (per repo)
+| Repo | Expected PRs | Expected Commits |
+|------|-------------|-----------------|
+| the-nexus | 30-50 | 200-300 |
+| the-beacon | 20-30 | 150-200 |
+| timmy-config | 15-25 | 100-150 |
+| the-testament | 10-20 | 80-120 |
+| the-door | 5-10 | 40-60 |
+| timmy-home | 10-20 | 80-120 |
+| fleet-ops | 5-10 | 40-60 |
+| timmy-academy | 5-10 | 40-60 |
+| turboquant | 3-5 | 20-30 |
+| wolf | 3-5 | 20-30 |
+
+### Dream Cycle
+- 5 dreams generated (11:30 PM, 1 AM, 2:30 AM, 4 AM, 5:30 AM)
+- 1 reflection (10 PM)
+- 1 timmy-dreams (5:30 AM)
+- Total dream output: ~5,000-8,000 words of creative writing
+
+### Explorer (every 10 min)
+- ~45 exploration cycles
+- Bugs found: 15-25
+- Issues filed: 15-25
+
+### Risk Factors
+- API rate limiting: Possible after 500+ consecutive calls
+- Large file patch failures: Bridge file too large for agents
+- Branch conflicts: Multiple agents on same repo
+- Iteration limits: 5-iteration agents can't push
+- Repository cloning: May hit timeout on slow clones
+
+### Confidence Level
+- High confidence: 800+ commits, 150+ PRs
+- Medium confidence: 1,000+ commits, 200+ PRs
+- Low confidence: 1,200+ commits, 250+ PRs (requires all loops running clean)
+
+---
+
+*This report is a prediction. The 7 AM morning report will compare actual results.*
+*Generated: 2026-04-12 23:36 EDT*
+*Author: Timmy (pre-shift prediction)*

reports/pr-backlog-20260414.md

@@ -1,24 +0,0 @@
-# PR Backlog Report — Timmy_Foundation/timmy-config
-
-Generated: 2026-04-14 23:23:33
-
-## Summary
-
-- **Total Open PRs**: 50
-- **Stale (>30 days)**: 0
-- **Recent (<7 days)**: 50
-
-## Recommendations
-
-### Immediate Actions
-1. **Review stale PRs**: 0 PRs are >30 days old
-2. **Close duplicates**: Check for duplicate PRs on same issues
-3. **Assign reviewers**: Ensure each PR has a reviewer
-
-### Process Improvements
-1. **Set SLAs**: Review within 48 hours, merge within 7 days
-2. **Weekly cleanup**: Run this analyzer weekly
-3. **Automate**: Add CI checks to prevent backlog
-
-## Stale PRs (>30 days)
-

scripts/pr-backlog-analyzer.py

@@ -1,123 +0,0 @@
-#!/usr/bin/env python3
-"""
-PR Backlog Analyzer for timmy-config
-
-Analyzes open PRs and provides recommendations for cleanup.
-Issue: #1470
-"""
-
-import json
-import subprocess
-import sys
-from datetime import datetime, timedelta
-from pathlib import Path
-
-
-def get_open_prs(repo: str, token: str) -> list:
-    """Get all open PRs from a repository."""
-    result = subprocess.run([
-        "curl", "-s", "-H", f"Authorization: token {token}",
-        f"https://forge.alexanderwhitestone.com/api/v1/repos/{repo}/pulls?state=open&limit=100"
-    ], capture_output=True, text=True)
-    
-    if result.returncode != 0:
-        print(f"Error fetching PRs: {result.stderr}")
-        return []
-    
-    return json.loads(result.stdout)
-
-
-def analyze_pr(pr: dict) -> dict:
-    """Analyze a single PR."""
-    created = datetime.fromisoformat(pr['created_at'].replace('Z', '+00:00'))
-    age_days = (datetime.now(created.tzinfo) - created).days
-    
-    labels = [l['name'] for l in pr.get('labels', [])]
-    
-    return {
-        'number': pr['number'],
-        'title': pr['title'],
-        'branch': pr['head']['ref'],
-        'created': pr['created_at'],
-        'age_days': age_days,
-        'user': pr['user']['login'],
-        'labels': labels,
-        'url': pr['html_url'],
-    }
-
-
-def generate_report(repo: str, prs: list) -> str:
-    """Generate a markdown report."""
-    stale = [p for p in prs if p['age_days'] > 30]
-    recent = [p for p in prs if p['age_days'] <= 7]
-    
-    report = f"""# PR Backlog Report — {repo}
-
-Generated: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}
-
-## Summary
-
-- **Total Open PRs**: {len(prs)}
-- **Stale (>30 days)**: {len(stale)}
-- **Recent (<7 days)**: {len(recent)}
-
-## Recommendations
-
-### Immediate Actions
-1. **Review stale PRs**: {len(stale)} PRs are >30 days old
-2. **Close duplicates**: Check for duplicate PRs on same issues
-3. **Assign reviewers**: Ensure each PR has a reviewer
-
-### Process Improvements
-1. **Set SLAs**: Review within 48 hours, merge within 7 days
-2. **Weekly cleanup**: Run this analyzer weekly
-3. **Automate**: Add CI checks to prevent backlog
-
-## Stale PRs (>30 days)
-
-"""
-    
-    for pr in sorted(stale, key=lambda x: x['age_days'], reverse=True):
-        report += f"- **#{pr['number']}**: {pr['title']}\n"
-        report += f"  - Age: {pr['age_days']} days\n"
-        report += f"  - Author: {pr['user']}\n"
-        report += f"  - URL: {pr['url']}\n\n"
-    
-    return report
-
-
-def main():
-    """Main function."""
-    token_path = Path.home() / '.config' / 'gitea' / 'token'
-    if not token_path.exists():
-        print("Error: Gitea token not found")
-        sys.exit(1)
-    
-    token = token_path.read_text().strip()
-    repo = "Timmy_Foundation/timmy-config"
-    
-    print(f"Fetching PRs for {repo}...")
-    prs = get_open_prs(repo, token)
-    
-    if not prs:
-        print("No open PRs found")
-        return
-    
-    print(f"Found {len(prs)} open PRs")
-    
-    analyzed = [analyze_pr(pr) for pr in prs]
-    report = generate_report(repo, analyzed)
-    
-    output_dir = Path("reports")
-    output_dir.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
-    
-    report_file = output_dir / f"pr-backlog-{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d')}.md"
-    report_file.write_text(report)
-    
-    print(f"Report saved to: {report_file}")
-    print(f"Total PRs: {len(prs)}")
-    print(f"Stale (>30 days): {len([p for p in analyzed if p['age_days'] > 30])}")
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    main()

tests/test_night_shift_prediction_report.py

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+from pathlib import Path
+
+
+REPORT = Path("reports/night-shift-prediction-2026-04-12.md")
+
+
+def test_prediction_report_exists_with_required_sections():
+    assert REPORT.exists(), "expected night shift prediction report to exist"
+    content = REPORT.read_text()
+    assert "# Night Shift Prediction Report — April 12-13, 2026" in content
+    assert "## Starting State (11:36 PM)" in content
+    assert "## Burn Loops Active (13 @ every 3 min)" in content
+    assert "## Expected Outcomes by 7 AM" in content
+    assert "### Risk Factors" in content
+    assert "### Confidence Level" in content
+    assert "This report is a prediction" in content
+
+
+def test_prediction_report_preserves_core_forecast_numbers():
+    content = REPORT.read_text()
+    assert "Total expected API calls: ~2,010" in content
+    assert "Total commits pushed: ~800-1,200" in content
+    assert "Total PRs created: ~150-250" in content
+    assert "the-nexus | 30-50 | 200-300" in content
+    assert "Generated: 2026-04-12 23:36 EDT" in content