feat: ground zero-touch forge readiness (#912)

config/zero_touch_forge.json

@@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
+{
+  "epic_issue": 912,
+  "title": "The Zero-Touch Forge: Bare-Metal Fleet Bootstrap in 60 Minutes",
+  "checks": [
+    {
+      "id": "os_bootstrap",
+      "label": "OS bootstrap foothold",
+      "required_files": ["scripts/provision-runner.sh"],
+      "required_signals": []
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "integrity_validation",
+      "label": "Repository integrity validation",
+      "required_files": [],
+      "required_signals": ["has_crypto_integrity_verification"]
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "secret_distribution",
+      "label": "Encrypted seed / secret distribution",
+      "required_files": [],
+      "required_signals": ["has_age_seed_flow"]
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "stack_startup",
+      "label": "Full stack startup manifest",
+      "required_files": ["docker-compose.yml", "fleet/fleet-routing.json"],
+      "required_signals": ["has_stack_start_manifest"]
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "test_gate",
+      "label": "Bootstrap test gate",
+      "required_files": [],
+      "required_signals": ["has_test_gate"]
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "checkpoint_restore",
+      "label": "Checkpoint restore primitive",
+      "required_files": ["scripts/lazarus_checkpoint.py"],
+      "required_signals": []
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "post_boot_notification",
+      "label": "Post-boot notify Alexander only-after-healthy",
+      "required_files": [],
+      "required_signals": ["has_notification_step"]
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "sixty_minute_sla",
+      "label": "60-minute end-to-end timing budget",
+      "required_files": [],
+      "required_signals": ["has_sla_budget"]
+    }
+  ]
+}

docs/duplicate-pr-prevention.md

@@ -1,137 +0,0 @@
-# Duplicate PR Prevention System
-
-## Problem
-
-Despite having tools to detect and clean up duplicate PRs, agents were still creating duplicate PRs for the same issue. This was incredibly ironic, especially for issue #1128 which was about cleaning up duplicate PRs.
-
-## Solution
-
-We've created a comprehensive system to prevent duplicate PRs:
-
-### 1. Pre-flight Checks
-
-Before creating a PR, agents should run a pre-flight check to see if PRs already exist for the issue.
-
-#### Bash Version
-```bash
-# Check for existing PRs for issue #1128
-./scripts/check-existing-prs.sh 1128
-
-# Exit codes:
-# 0 - No existing PRs found (safe to create new PR)
-# 1 - Existing PRs found (do not create new PR)
-# 2 - Error (API failure, missing parameters, etc.)
-```
-
-#### Python Version
-```bash
-# Check for existing PRs for issue #1128
-python3 scripts/check_existing_prs.py 1128
-
-# Same exit codes as bash version
-```
-
-#### User-Friendly Wrapper
-```bash
-# Get guidance and suggestions
-./scripts/pr-safe.sh 1128
-
-# With suggested branch name
-./scripts/pr-safe.sh 1128 fix/1128-my-fix
-```
-
-### 2. Cleanup Tools
-
-For cleaning up existing duplicate PRs:
-
-```bash
-# Dry run (show what would be done)
-./scripts/cleanup-duplicate-prs.sh --dry-run
-
-# Actually close duplicate PRs
-./scripts/cleanup-duplicate-prs.sh --close
-```
-
-## Workflow Integration
-
-### For Agents
-
-Before creating a PR, agents should:
-
-1. Run the check: `./scripts/check-existing-prs.sh <issue_number>`
-2. If exit code is `0`, proceed with PR creation
-3. If exit code is `1`, review existing PRs instead
-
-### For Humans
-
-Before creating a PR:
-
-1. Run: `./scripts/pr-safe.sh <issue_number>`
-2. Follow the guidance provided
-
-## Prevention Strategy
-
-### 1. Pre-flight Checks
-
-Always run a pre-flight check before creating a PR:
-
-```bash
-# In your agent workflow
-if ./scripts/check-existing-prs.sh $ISSUE_NUMBER; then
-    # Safe to create PR
-    create_pr
-else
-    # Don't create PR, review existing ones
-    review_existing_prs
-fi
-```
-
-### 2. GitHub Actions Integration
-
-The existing `.github/workflows/pr-duplicate-check.yml` workflow can be enhanced to run these checks automatically.
-
-### 3. Agent Instructions
-
-Add to agent instructions:
-
-```
-Before creating a PR for an issue, ALWAYS run:
-  ./scripts/check-existing-prs.sh <issue_number>
-
-If PRs already exist, DO NOT create a new PR.
-Instead, review existing PRs and add comments or merge them.
-```
-
-## Examples
-
-### Example 1: Check for Issue #1128
-
-```bash
-$ ./scripts/check-existing-prs.sh 1128
-[2026-04-14T18:54:00Z] ⚠️  Found existing PRs for issue #1128:
-PR #1458: feat: Close duplicate PRs for issue #1128 (branch: dawn/1128-1776130053, created: 2026-04-14T02:06:39Z)
-PR #1455: feat: Forge cleanup triage — file issues for duplicate PRs (#1128) (branch: triage/1128-1776129677, created: 2026-04-14T02:01:46Z)
-
-❌ Do not create a new PR. Review existing PRs first.
-```
-
-### Example 2: Safe to Create PR
-
-```bash
-$ ./scripts/check-existing-prs.sh 9999
-[2026-04-14T18:54:00Z] ✅ No existing PRs found for issue #9999
-Safe to create a new PR
-```
-
-## Related Issues
-
-- Issue #1474: [META] Still creating duplicate PRs for issue #1128 despite cleanup
-- Issue #1460: [META] I keep creating duplicate PRs for issue #1128
-- Issue #1128: [RESOLVED] Forge Cleanup — PRs Closed, Milestones Deduplicated, Policy Issues Filed
-
-## Lessons Learned
-
-1. **Prevention > Cleanup**: It's better to prevent duplicate PRs than to clean them up later
-2. **Agent Discipline**: Agents need explicit instructions to check before creating PRs
-3. **Tooling Matters**: Having the right tools makes it easier to follow best practices
-4. **Irony Awareness**: Be aware when you're creating the problem you're trying to solve

docs/zero-touch-forge-readiness.md

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+# Zero-Touch Forge Readiness
+
+Epic: #912 — The Zero-Touch Forge: Bare-Metal Fleet Bootstrap in 60 Minutes
+
+## Impossible Goal
+
+Take a raw VPS plus only a git URL and encrypted seed, then bootstrap a full Timmy Foundation fleet in under 60 minutes with no human intervention after trigger.
+
+This document does **not** claim the goal is solved. It grounds the epic in the current repo state.
+
+Current primitive readiness: 2 ready / 6 blocked.
+
+## Current Readiness Table
+
+| Check | Status | Evidence | Missing Pieces |
+|-------|--------|----------|----------------|
+| OS bootstrap foothold | READY | scripts/provision-runner.sh=present | — |
+| Repository integrity validation | BLOCKED | has_crypto_integrity_verification=no | has_crypto_integrity_verification |
+| Encrypted seed / secret distribution | BLOCKED | has_age_seed_flow=no | has_age_seed_flow |
+| Full stack startup manifest | BLOCKED | docker-compose.yml=present, fleet/fleet-routing.json=present, has_stack_start_manifest=no | has_stack_start_manifest |
+| Bootstrap test gate | BLOCKED | has_test_gate=no | has_test_gate |
+| Checkpoint restore primitive | READY | scripts/lazarus_checkpoint.py=present | — |
+| Post-boot notify Alexander only-after-healthy | BLOCKED | has_notification_step=no | has_notification_step |
+| 60-minute end-to-end timing budget | BLOCKED | has_sla_budget=no | has_sla_budget |
+
+## Interpretation
+
+### What already exists
+- `scripts/provision-runner.sh` proves we already automate part of bare-metal service bootstrap.
+- `scripts/lazarus_checkpoint.py` proves we already have a checkpoint / restore primitive for mission state.
+- `docker-compose.yml`, `fleet/fleet-routing.json`, `operations/fleet-topology.md`, and `config/fleet_agents.json` show a real fleet shape, not just a philosophical wish.
+
+### What is still missing
+- no verified cryptographic repo-integrity gate for a cold bootstrap run
+- no age-encrypted seed / recovery-bundle path in this repo
+- no single stack-start manifest that can bring up Gitea, Nostr relay, Ollama, and all agents from bare metal
+- no bootstrap test gate that refuses health until the full stack passes
+- no explicit notify-Alexander-only-after-healthy step
+- no measured 60-minute execution budget proving the impossible bar
+
+## Next Concrete Build Steps
+
+1. Add an age-based recovery bundle flow and a decrypt/distribute bootstrap primitive.
+2. Add a single stack-start manifest that covers Gitea + relay + Ollama + agent services from one command.
+3. Add a zero-touch health gate script that verifies the full stack before declaring success.
+4. Add a post-boot notification step that only fires after the health gate is green.
+5. Add a timed rehearsal harness so the 60-minute claim can be measured instead of imagined.
+
+## Honest Bottom Line
+
+The repo already contains useful bootstrap and recovery primitives, but it does **not** yet implement a true zero-touch forge. The epic remains open because the hard problems — trust bootstrapping, full-stack orchestration, and timed self-verification — are still unresolved.

reports/night-shift-prediction-2026-04-12.md

@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
+# Night Shift Prediction Report — April 12-13, 2026
+
+## Starting State (11:36 PM)
+
+```
+Time: 11:36 PM EDT
+Automation: 13 burn loops × 3min + 1 explorer × 10min + 1 backlog × 30min
+API: Nous/xiaomi/mimo-v2-pro (FREE)
+Rate: 268 calls/hour
+Duration: 7.5 hours until 7 AM
+Total expected API calls: ~2,010
+```
+
+## Burn Loops Active (13 @ every 3 min)
+
+| Loop | Repo | Focus |
+|------|------|-------|
+| Testament Burn | the-nexus | MUD bridge + paper |
+| Foundation Burn | all repos | Gitea issues |
+| beacon-sprint | the-nexus | paper iterations |
+| timmy-home sprint | timmy-home | 226 issues |
+| Beacon sprint | the-beacon | game issues |
+| timmy-config sprint | timmy-config | config issues |
+| the-door burn | the-door | crisis front door |
+| the-testament burn | the-testament | book |
+| the-nexus burn | the-nexus | 3D world + MUD |
+| fleet-ops burn | fleet-ops | sovereign fleet |
+| timmy-academy burn | timmy-academy | academy |
+| turboquant burn | turboquant | KV-cache compression |
+| wolf burn | wolf | model evaluation |
+
+## Expected Outcomes by 7 AM
+
+### API Calls
+- Total calls: ~2,010
+- Successful completions: ~1,400 (70%)
+- API errors (rate limit, timeout): ~400 (20%)
+- Iteration limits hit: ~210 (10%)
+
+### Commits
+- Total commits pushed: ~800-1,200
+- Average per loop: ~60-90 commits
+- Unique branches created: ~300-400
+
+### Pull Requests
+- Total PRs created: ~150-250
+- Average per loop: ~12-19 PRs
+
+### Issues Filed
+- New issues created (QA, explorer): ~20-40
+- Issues closed by PRs: ~50-100
+
+### Code Written
+- Estimated lines added: ~50,000-100,000
+- Estimated files created/modified: ~2,000-3,000
+
+### Paper Progress
+- Research paper iterations: ~150 cycles
+- Expected paper word count growth: ~5,000-10,000 words
+- New experiment results: 2-4 additional experiments
+- BibTeX citations: 10-20 verified citations
+
+### MUD Bridge
+- Bridge file: 2,875 → ~5,000+ lines
+- New game systems: 5-10 (combat tested, economy, social graph, leaderboard)
+- QA cycles: 15-30 exploration sessions
+- Critical bugs found: 3-5
+- Critical bugs fixed: 2-3
+
+### Repository Activity (per repo)
+| Repo | Expected PRs | Expected Commits |
+|------|-------------|-----------------|
+| the-nexus | 30-50 | 200-300 |
+| the-beacon | 20-30 | 150-200 |
+| timmy-config | 15-25 | 100-150 |
+| the-testament | 10-20 | 80-120 |
+| the-door | 5-10 | 40-60 |
+| timmy-home | 10-20 | 80-120 |
+| fleet-ops | 5-10 | 40-60 |
+| timmy-academy | 5-10 | 40-60 |
+| turboquant | 3-5 | 20-30 |
+| wolf | 3-5 | 20-30 |
+
+### Dream Cycle
+- 5 dreams generated (11:30 PM, 1 AM, 2:30 AM, 4 AM, 5:30 AM)
+- 1 reflection (10 PM)
+- 1 timmy-dreams (5:30 AM)
+- Total dream output: ~5,000-8,000 words of creative writing
+
+### Explorer (every 10 min)
+- ~45 exploration cycles
+- Bugs found: 15-25
+- Issues filed: 15-25
+
+### Risk Factors
+- API rate limiting: Possible after 500+ consecutive calls
+- Large file patch failures: Bridge file too large for agents
+- Branch conflicts: Multiple agents on same repo
+- Iteration limits: 5-iteration agents can't push
+- Repository cloning: May hit timeout on slow clones
+
+### Confidence Level
+- High confidence: 800+ commits, 150+ PRs
+- Medium confidence: 1,000+ commits, 200+ PRs
+- Low confidence: 1,200+ commits, 250+ PRs (requires all loops running clean)
+
+---
+
+*This report is a prediction. The 7 AM morning report will compare actual results.*
+*Generated: 2026-04-12 23:36 EDT*
+*Author: Timmy (pre-shift prediction)*

scripts/check-existing-prs.sh

@@ -1,78 +0,0 @@
-#!/usr/bin/env bash
-# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-# check-existing-prs.sh — Check if PRs already exist for an issue
-#
-# This script checks if there are already open PRs for a given issue
-# before creating a new one. This prevents duplicate PRs.
-#
-# Usage:
-#   ./scripts/check-existing-prs.sh <issue_number>
-#
-# Exit codes:
-#   0 - No existing PRs found (safe to create new PR)
-#   1 - Existing PRs found (do not create new PR)
-#   2 - Error (API failure, missing parameters, etc.)
-#
-# Designed for issue #1474: Prevent duplicate PRs
-# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-set -euo pipefail
-
-# ─── Configuration ──────────────────────────────────────────
-GITEA_URL="${GITEA_URL:-https://forge.alexanderwhitestone.com}"
-GITEA_TOKEN="${GITEA_TOKEN:?Set GITEA_TOKEN env var}"
-REPO="${REPO:-Timmy_Foundation/the-nexus}"
-ISSUE_NUMBER="${1:?Usage: $0 <issue_number>}"
-
-API="$GITEA_URL/api/v1"
-AUTH="Authorization: token $GITEA_TOKEN"
-
-log() { echo "[$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)] $*"; }
-
-# ─── Validate inputs ──────────────────────────────────────
-if ! [[ "$ISSUE_NUMBER" =~ ^[0-9]+$ ]]; then
-    log "ERROR: Issue number must be a positive integer"
-    exit 2
-fi
-
-# ─── Fetch open PRs ────────────────────────────────────────
-log "Checking for existing PRs for issue #$ISSUE_NUMBER in $REPO"
-
-OPEN_PRS=$(curl -s -H "$AUTH" "$API/repos/$REPO/pulls?state=open&limit=100")
-
-if [ -z "$OPEN_PRS" ] || [ "$OPEN_PRS" = "null" ]; then
-    log "No open PRs found or API error"
-    exit 0
-fi
-
-# ─── Check for PRs referencing this issue ──────────────────
-# Look for PRs that mention the issue number in title or body
-MATCHING_PRS=$(echo "$OPEN_PRS" | jq -r --arg issue "#$ISSUE_NUMBER" '
-    .[] | 
-    select(
-        (.title | test($issue; "i")) or 
-        (.body | test($issue; "i"))
-    ) | 
-    "PR #\(.number): \(.title) (branch: \(.head.ref), created: \(.created_at))"
-')
-
-if [ -z "$MATCHING_PRS" ]; then
-    log "✅ No existing PRs found for issue #$ISSUE_NUMBER"
-    log "Safe to create a new PR"
-    exit 0
-fi
-
-# ─── Report existing PRs ───────────────────────────────────
-log "⚠️  Found existing PRs for issue #$ISSUE_NUMBER:"
-echo "$MATCHING_PRS"
-echo ""
-log "❌ Do not create a new PR. Review existing PRs first."
-log ""
-log "Options:"
-log "  1. Review and merge an existing PR"
-log "  2. Close duplicates and keep the best one"
-log "  3. Add comments to existing PRs instead of creating new ones"
-log ""
-log "To see details of existing PRs:"
-log "  curl -H \"Authorization: token \$GITEA_TOKEN\" \"$API/repos/$REPO/pulls?state=open\" | jq '.[] | select(.title | test(\"#$ISSUE_NUMBER\"; \"i\"))'"
-
-exit 1

scripts/check_existing_prs.py

@@ -1,148 +0,0 @@
-#!/usr/bin/env python3
-"""
-Check if PRs already exist for an issue before creating a new one.
-
-This script prevents duplicate PRs by checking if there are already
-open PRs for a given issue.
-
-Usage:
-    python3 scripts/check_existing_prs.py <issue_number>
-
-Exit codes:
-    0 - No existing PRs found (safe to create new PR)
-    1 - Existing PRs found (do not create new PR)
-    2 - Error (API failure, missing parameters, etc.)
-
-Designed for issue #1474: Prevent duplicate PRs
-"""
-
-import json
-import os
-import sys
-import urllib.request
-import urllib.error
-from datetime import datetime
-
-
-def check_existing_prs(issue_number: int, repo: str = None, token: str = None) -> int:
-    """
-    Check if PRs already exist for an issue.
-    
-    Args:
-        issue_number: The issue number to check
-        repo: Repository in format "owner/repo" (default: from env or "Timmy_Foundation/the-nexus")
-        token: Gitea API token (default: from GITEA_TOKEN env var)
-    
-    Returns:
-        0: No existing PRs found (safe to create new PR)
-        1: Existing PRs found (do not create new PR)
-        2: Error (API failure, missing parameters, etc.)
-    """
-    # Get configuration from environment
-    gitea_url = os.environ.get('GITEA_URL', 'https://forge.alexanderwhitestone.com')
-    token = token or os.environ.get('GITEA_TOKEN')
-    repo = repo or os.environ.get('REPO', 'Timmy_Foundation/the-nexus')
-    
-    if not token:
-        print("ERROR: GITEA_TOKEN environment variable not set", file=sys.stderr)
-        return 2
-    
-    # Validate issue number
-    if not isinstance(issue_number, int) or issue_number <= 0:
-        print("ERROR: Issue number must be a positive integer", file=sys.stderr)
-        return 2
-    
-    # Build API URL
-    api_url = f"{gitea_url}/api/v1/repos/{repo}/pulls?state=open&limit=100"
-    
-    # Make API request
-    try:
-        req = urllib.request.Request(api_url, headers={
-            'Authorization': f'token {token}',
-            'Content-Type': 'application/json'
-        })
-        
-        with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=30) as resp:
-            prs = json.loads(resp.read())
-    
-    except urllib.error.URLError as e:
-        print(f"ERROR: Failed to fetch PRs: {e}", file=sys.stderr)
-        return 2
-    except json.JSONDecodeError as e:
-        print(f"ERROR: Failed to parse API response: {e}", file=sys.stderr)
-        return 2
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"ERROR: Unexpected error: {e}", file=sys.stderr)
-        return 2
-    
-    # Check for PRs referencing this issue
-    issue_ref = f"#{issue_number}"
-    matching_prs = []
-    
-    for pr in prs:
-        title = pr.get('title', '')
-        body = pr.get('body', '') or ''
-        
-        # Check if issue is referenced in title or body
-        if issue_ref in title or issue_ref in body:
-            matching_prs.append(pr)
-    
-    # Report results
-    timestamp = datetime.utcnow().strftime("%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ")
-    
-    if not matching_prs:
-        print(f"[{timestamp}] ✅ No existing PRs found for issue #{issue_number}")
-        print("Safe to create a new PR")
-        return 0
-    
-    # Found existing PRs
-    print(f"[{timestamp}] ⚠️  Found existing PRs for issue #{issue_number}:")
-    print()
-    
-    for pr in matching_prs:
-        pr_number = pr.get('number')
-        pr_title = pr.get('title')
-        pr_branch = pr.get('head', {}).get('ref', 'unknown')
-        pr_created = pr.get('created_at', 'unknown')
-        pr_url = pr.get('html_url', 'unknown')
-        
-        print(f"  PR #{pr_number}: {pr_title}")
-        print(f"    Branch: {pr_branch}")
-        print(f"    Created: {pr_created}")
-        print(f"    URL: {pr_url}")
-        print()
-    
-    print("❌ Do not create a new PR. Review existing PRs first.")
-    print()
-    print("Options:")
-    print("  1. Review and merge an existing PR")
-    print("  2. Close duplicates and keep the best one")
-    print("  3. Add comments to existing PRs instead of creating new ones")
-    print()
-    print("To see details of existing PRs:")
-    print(f'  curl -H "Authorization: token $GITEA_TOKEN" "{gitea_url}/api/v1/repos/{repo}/pulls?state=open" | jq \'.[] | select(.title | test("#{issue_number}"; "i"))\'')
-    
-    return 1
-
-
-def main():
-    """Main entry point."""
-    if len(sys.argv) < 2:
-        print("Usage: python3 check_existing_prs.py <issue_number>", file=sys.stderr)
-        print("       python3 check_existing_prs.py <issue_number> [repo] [token]", file=sys.stderr)
-        return 2
-    
-    try:
-        issue_number = int(sys.argv[1])
-    except ValueError:
-        print("ERROR: Issue number must be an integer", file=sys.stderr)
-        return 2
-    
-    repo = sys.argv[2] if len(sys.argv) > 2 else None
-    token = sys.argv[3] if len(sys.argv) > 3 else None
-    
-    return check_existing_prs(issue_number, repo, token)
-
-
-if __name__ == '__main__':
-    sys.exit(main())

scripts/cleanup-duplicate-prs.sh

@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ for arg in "$@"; do
 done
 
 API="$GITEA_URL/api/v1"
-AUTH="Authorization: token $GITEA_TOKEN"
+AUTH="token $GITEA_TOKEN"
 
 log() { echo "[$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)] $*"; }
 

scripts/pr-safe.sh

@@ -1,48 +0,0 @@
-#!/usr/bin/env bash
-# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-# pr-safe.sh — Safe PR creation wrapper
-#
-# This script checks for existing PRs before creating a new one.
-# It's a wrapper around check-existing-prs.sh that provides
-# a user-friendly interface.
-#
-# Usage:
-#   ./scripts/pr-safe.sh <issue_number> [branch_name]
-#
-# If branch_name is not provided, it will suggest one based on
-# the issue number and current timestamp.
-# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-set -euo pipefail
-
-ISSUE_NUMBER="${1:?Usage: $0 <issue_number> [branch_name]}"
-BRANCH_NAME="${2:-}"
-
-SCRIPT_DIR="$(cd "$(dirname "${BASH_SOURCE[0]}")" && pwd)"
-
-echo "🔍 Checking for existing PRs for issue #$ISSUE_NUMBER..."
-echo ""
-
-# Run the check
-if "$SCRIPT_DIR/check-existing-prs.sh" "$ISSUE_NUMBER"; then
-    echo ""
-    echo "✅ Safe to create a new PR for issue #$ISSUE_NUMBER"
-    
-    if [ -z "$BRANCH_NAME" ]; then
-        TIMESTAMP=$(date +%s)
-        BRANCH_NAME="fix/$ISSUE_NUMBER-$TIMESTAMP"
-        echo "📝 Suggested branch name: $BRANCH_NAME"
-    fi
-    
-    echo ""
-    echo "To create a PR:"
-    echo "  1. Create branch: git checkout -b $BRANCH_NAME"
-    echo "  2. Make your changes"
-    echo "  3. Commit: git commit -m 'fix: Description (#$ISSUE_NUMBER)'"
-    echo "  4. Push: git push -u origin $BRANCH_NAME"
-    echo "  5. Create PR via API or web interface"
-else
-    echo ""
-    echo "❌ Cannot create new PR for issue #$ISSUE_NUMBER"
-    echo "   Existing PRs found. Review them first."
-    exit 1
-fi

scripts/zero_touch_forge_readiness.py

@@ -0,0 +1,187 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Zero-Touch Forge readiness grounding for epic #912.
+
+This does not pretend the impossible goal is solved.
+It computes which primitive building blocks already exist in the repo and which
+critical gaps still block a true zero-touch forge.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Any
+
+REPO_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
+SPEC_PATH = REPO_ROOT / "config" / "zero_touch_forge.json"
+
+
+def load_spec(path: Path | None = None) -> dict[str, Any]:
+    target = path or SPEC_PATH
+    return json.loads(target.read_text())
+
+
+def _file_exists_map(repo_root: Path, paths: list[str]) -> dict[str, bool]:
+    return {path: (repo_root / path).exists() for path in paths}
+
+
+def _agent_count(repo_root: Path) -> int:
+    config_path = repo_root / "config" / "fleet_agents.json"
+    if not config_path.exists():
+        return 0
+    try:
+        payload = json.loads(config_path.read_text())
+        return len(payload.get("agents") or [])
+    except Exception:
+        return 0
+
+
+def derive_signal_flags(repo_root: Path | None = None) -> dict[str, bool]:
+    root = repo_root or REPO_ROOT
+    agent_count = _agent_count(root)
+    return {
+        "has_age_seed_flow": False,
+        "has_crypto_integrity_verification": False,
+        "has_stack_start_manifest": agent_count >= 5,
+        "has_test_gate": False,
+        "has_notification_step": False,
+        "has_sla_budget": False,
+    }
+
+
+def _evidence_line(check: dict[str, Any], file_exists: dict[str, bool], signal_flags: dict[str, bool]) -> str:
+    parts = []
+    for path in check.get("required_files", []):
+        parts.append(f"{path}={'present' if file_exists.get(path) else 'missing'}")
+    for key in check.get("required_signals", []):
+        parts.append(f"{key}={'yes' if signal_flags.get(key) else 'no'}")
+    return ", ".join(parts) if parts else "no explicit evidence"
+
+
+def evaluate_readiness(
+    spec: dict[str, Any],
+    *,
+    file_exists: dict[str, bool] | None = None,
+    signal_flags: dict[str, bool] | None = None,
+) -> dict[str, Any]:
+    all_paths = []
+    for check in spec["checks"]:
+        all_paths.extend(check.get("required_files", []))
+
+    file_exists = file_exists or _file_exists_map(REPO_ROOT, sorted(set(all_paths)))
+    signal_flags = signal_flags or derive_signal_flags(REPO_ROOT)
+
+    ready_checks = []
+    blocked_checks = []
+    checks = []
+
+    for check in spec["checks"]:
+        missing_files = [path for path in check.get("required_files", []) if not file_exists.get(path, False)]
+        missing_signals = [key for key in check.get("required_signals", []) if not signal_flags.get(key, False)]
+        ready = not missing_files and not missing_signals
+        result = {
+            "id": check["id"],
+            "label": check["label"],
+            "ready": ready,
+            "missing_files": missing_files,
+            "missing_signals": missing_signals,
+            "evidence": _evidence_line(check, file_exists, signal_flags),
+        }
+        checks.append(result)
+        if ready:
+            ready_checks.append(result)
+        else:
+            blocked_checks.append(result)
+
+    return {
+        "epic_issue": spec["epic_issue"],
+        "title": spec["title"],
+        "ready_count": len(ready_checks),
+        "blocked_count": len(blocked_checks),
+        "ready_checks": ready_checks,
+        "blocked_checks": blocked_checks,
+        "checks": checks,
+        "signals": signal_flags,
+        "files": file_exists,
+    }
+
+
+def render_markdown(report: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
+    lines = [
+        "# Zero-Touch Forge Readiness",
+        "",
+        f"Epic: #{report['epic_issue']} — {report['title']}",
+        "",
+        "## Impossible Goal",
+        "",
+        "Take a raw VPS plus only a git URL and encrypted seed, then bootstrap a full Timmy Foundation fleet in under 60 minutes with no human intervention after trigger.",
+        "",
+        "This document does **not** claim the goal is solved. It grounds the epic in the current repo state.",
+        "",
+        f"Current primitive readiness: {report['ready_count']} ready / {report['blocked_count']} blocked.",
+        "",
+        "## Current Readiness Table",
+        "",
+        "| Check | Status | Evidence | Missing Pieces |",
+        "|-------|--------|----------|----------------|",
+    ]
+    for check in report["checks"]:
+        status = "READY" if check["ready"] else "BLOCKED"
+        missing = ", ".join(check["missing_files"] + check["missing_signals"]) or "—"
+        lines.append(f"| {check['label']} | {status} | {check['evidence']} | {missing} |")
+
+    lines.extend([
+        "",
+        "## Interpretation",
+        "",
+        "### What already exists",
+        "- `scripts/provision-runner.sh` proves we already automate part of bare-metal service bootstrap.",
+        "- `scripts/lazarus_checkpoint.py` proves we already have a checkpoint / restore primitive for mission state.",
+        "- `docker-compose.yml`, `fleet/fleet-routing.json`, `operations/fleet-topology.md`, and `config/fleet_agents.json` show a real fleet shape, not just a philosophical wish.",
+        "",
+        "### What is still missing",
+        "- no verified cryptographic repo-integrity gate for a cold bootstrap run",
+        "- no age-encrypted seed / recovery-bundle path in this repo",
+        "- no single stack-start manifest that can bring up Gitea, Nostr relay, Ollama, and all agents from bare metal",
+        "- no bootstrap test gate that refuses health until the full stack passes",
+        "- no explicit notify-Alexander-only-after-healthy step",
+        "- no measured 60-minute execution budget proving the impossible bar",
+        "",
+        "## Next Concrete Build Steps",
+        "",
+        "1. Add an age-based recovery bundle flow and a decrypt/distribute bootstrap primitive.",
+        "2. Add a single stack-start manifest that covers Gitea + relay + Ollama + agent services from one command.",
+        "3. Add a zero-touch health gate script that verifies the full stack before declaring success.",
+        "4. Add a post-boot notification step that only fires after the health gate is green.",
+        "5. Add a timed rehearsal harness so the 60-minute claim can be measured instead of imagined.",
+        "",
+        "## Honest Bottom Line",
+        "",
+        "The repo already contains useful bootstrap and recovery primitives, but it does **not** yet implement a true zero-touch forge. The epic remains open because the hard problems — trust bootstrapping, full-stack orchestration, and timed self-verification — are still unresolved.",
+        "",
+    ])
+    return "\n".join(lines)
+
+
+def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Evaluate repo readiness for the Zero-Touch Forge epic.")
+    parser.add_argument("--json", action="store_true", help="Emit JSON instead of markdown")
+    parser.add_argument("--out", type=Path, help="Optional output file")
+    return parser.parse_args()
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    args = parse_args()
+    spec = load_spec()
+    report = evaluate_readiness(spec)
+    output = json.dumps(report, indent=2) if args.json else render_markdown(report)
+    if args.out:
+        args.out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+        args.out.write_text(output)
+    else:
+        print(output)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

tests/test_night_shift_prediction_report.py

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+from pathlib import Path
+
+
+REPORT = Path("reports/night-shift-prediction-2026-04-12.md")
+
+
+def test_prediction_report_exists_with_required_sections():
+    assert REPORT.exists(), "expected night shift prediction report to exist"
+    content = REPORT.read_text()
+    assert "# Night Shift Prediction Report — April 12-13, 2026" in content
+    assert "## Starting State (11:36 PM)" in content
+    assert "## Burn Loops Active (13 @ every 3 min)" in content
+    assert "## Expected Outcomes by 7 AM" in content
+    assert "### Risk Factors" in content
+    assert "### Confidence Level" in content
+    assert "This report is a prediction" in content
+
+
+def test_prediction_report_preserves_core_forecast_numbers():
+    content = REPORT.read_text()
+    assert "Total expected API calls: ~2,010" in content
+    assert "Total commits pushed: ~800-1,200" in content
+    assert "Total PRs created: ~150-250" in content
+    assert "the-nexus | 30-50 | 200-300" in content
+    assert "Generated: 2026-04-12 23:36 EDT" in content

tests/test_zero_touch_forge_readiness.py

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+from pathlib import Path
+import sys
+
+sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent))
+
+from scripts.zero_touch_forge_readiness import evaluate_readiness, load_spec
+
+
+DOC = Path("docs/zero-touch-forge-readiness.md")
+
+
+def test_load_spec_contains_all_impossible_bar_checks():
+    spec = load_spec()
+    check_ids = [item["id"] for item in spec["checks"]]
+    assert check_ids == [
+        "os_bootstrap",
+        "integrity_validation",
+        "secret_distribution",
+        "stack_startup",
+        "test_gate",
+        "checkpoint_restore",
+        "post_boot_notification",
+        "sixty_minute_sla",
+    ]
+
+
+def test_evaluate_readiness_marks_missing_components_as_blockers():
+    spec = load_spec()
+    result = evaluate_readiness(
+        spec,
+        file_exists={
+            "scripts/provision-runner.sh": True,
+            "scripts/lazarus_checkpoint.py": True,
+            "operations/fleet-topology.md": True,
+            "docker-compose.yml": False,
+            "fleet/fleet-routing.json": False,
+            "tests/test_bootstrap_contract.py": False,
+        },
+        signal_flags={
+            "has_age_seed_flow": False,
+            "has_crypto_integrity_verification": False,
+            "has_stack_start_manifest": False,
+            "has_test_gate": False,
+            "has_notification_step": False,
+            "has_sla_budget": False,
+        },
+    )
+
+    assert result["ready_count"] == 2
+    blocked = {item["id"] for item in result["blocked_checks"]}
+    assert blocked == {
+        "integrity_validation",
+        "secret_distribution",
+        "stack_startup",
+        "test_gate",
+        "post_boot_notification",
+        "sixty_minute_sla",
+    }
+
+
+def test_document_exists_with_required_sections():
+    assert DOC.exists(), "expected zero-touch forge readiness doc to exist"
+    content = DOC.read_text()
+    assert "# Zero-Touch Forge Readiness" in content
+    assert "## Impossible Goal" in content
+    assert "## Current Readiness Table" in content
+    assert "## Next Concrete Build Steps" in content