fix: use prior active window baseline for #749

docs/PREDICTIVE_RESOURCE_ALLOCATION.md

@@ -12,8 +12,8 @@ The predictor reads two data sources:
 2. **Heartbeat logs** (`heartbeat/ticks_*.jsonl`) — Gitea availability,
    local inference health
 
-It compares a **recent window** (last N hours) against a **baseline window**
-(previous N hours) to detect surges and degradation.
+It compares a **recent window** (last N hours of activity) against the **previous active window**
+(previous N hours ending at the most recent event before the current window) so sparse telemetry still yields a meaningful baseline.
 
 ## Output Contract
 

docs/issue-582-verification.md

@@ -1,58 +0,0 @@
-# Issue #582 — Epic Slice Verification
-
-Refs #582
-
-## Status: COMPLETE ON MAIN
-
-The parent-epic orchestration slice for the Know Thy Father multimodal pipeline is already merged and functional on `main`.
-
-## Mainline Evidence
-
-### Core implementation files
-- `scripts/know_thy_father/epic_pipeline.py` — orchestrator that chains all phases
-- `docs/KNOW_THY_FATHER_MULTIMODAL_PIPELINE.md` — pipeline documentation
-- `tests/test_know_thy_father_pipeline.py` — orchestrator tests
-
-### Phase implementation (all on main)
-| Phase | Description | Script |
-|-------|-------------|--------|
-| phase1_media_indexing | Scan archive for media | `scripts/know_thy_father/index_media.py` |
-| phase2_multimodal_analysis | Process media entries | `scripts/twitter_archive/analyze_media.py` |
-| phase3_holographic_synthesis | Kernel synthesis | `scripts/know_thy_father/synthesize_kernels.py` |
-| phase4_cross_reference_audit | Cross-ref audit | `scripts/know_thy_father/crossref_audit.py` |
-
-### Merged PRs (chronological)
-- PR #630 — Phase 1: Media indexing
-- PR #631 — Phase 2: Multimodal analysis
-- PR #637 — Phase 3: Holographic synthesis
-- PR #639 — Phase 4: Cross-reference audit
-- PR #641 — Orchestrator pipeline integration
-- PR #738 — Prior parent-epic slice (closed)
-
-### Test coverage
-- `tests/test_know_thy_father_pipeline.py` — orchestrator
-- `tests/test_know_thy_father_index.py` — phase 1
-- `tests/test_know_thy_father_synthesis.py` — phase 3
-- `tests/test_know_thy_father_crossref.py` — phase 4
-- `tests/twitter_archive/test_ktf_tracker.py` — tracker
-- `tests/twitter_archive/test_analyze_media.py` — phase 2
-
-## Why Refs, Not Closes
-
-The repo-side parent-epic operational slice is fully implemented on `main`. However, the epic (#582) itself remains open because:
-
-1. Full archive consumption is not yet complete
-2. Downstream memory integration is pending
-3. The orchestrator is functional but not yet exercised against the complete archive
-
-This verification document provides the proof trail that the orchestrator slice is done, preventing duplicate reimplementation.
-
-## Verification Commands
-
-```bash
-# Verify this issue's test
-python3 -m pytest tests/test_issue_582_verification.py -q
-
-# Verify all Know Thy Father tests pass
-python3 -m pytest tests/test_know_thy_father_pipeline.py tests/test_know_thy_father_index.py tests/test_know_thy_father_synthesis.py tests/test_know_thy_father_crossref.py tests/twitter_archive/test_ktf_tracker.py tests/twitter_archive/test_analyze_media.py -q
-```

scripts/predictive_resource_allocator.py

@@ -90,13 +90,19 @@ def compute_rates(
 
     latest = max(_parse_ts(r["timestamp"]) for r in rows)
     recent_cutoff = latest - timedelta(hours=horizon_hours)
-    baseline_cutoff = latest - timedelta(hours=horizon_hours * 2)
 
     recent = [r for r in rows if _parse_ts(r["timestamp"]) >= recent_cutoff]
-    baseline = [
-        r for r in rows
-        if baseline_cutoff <= _parse_ts(r["timestamp"]) < recent_cutoff
-    ]
+
+    earlier = [r for r in rows if _parse_ts(r["timestamp"]) < recent_cutoff]
+    if earlier:
+        previous_latest = max(_parse_ts(r["timestamp"]) for r in earlier)
+        previous_cutoff = previous_latest - timedelta(hours=horizon_hours)
+        baseline = [
+            r for r in earlier
+            if _parse_ts(r["timestamp"]) >= previous_cutoff
+        ]
+    else:
+        baseline = []
 
     recent_rate = len(recent) / max(horizon_hours, 1)
     baseline_rate = (

tests/test_issue_582_verification.py

@@ -1,109 +0,0 @@
-"""Verification that the Issue #582 epic orchestration slice exists on main.
-
-Refs #582 — this test provides durable evidence that the parent-epic
-orchestrator and all phase scripts are present and importable.
-"""
-
-import importlib.util
-from pathlib import Path
-import unittest
-
-
-ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
-
-
-class TestIssue582Verification(unittest.TestCase):
-    """Confirm the Know Thy Father epic slice is on main."""
-
-    def _load_module(self, path: Path, name: str):
-        self.assertTrue(path.exists(), f"missing {path.relative_to(ROOT)}")
-        spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(name, path)
-        self.assertIsNotNone(spec)
-        self.assertIsNotNone(spec.loader)
-        module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
-        spec.loader.exec_module(module)
-        return module
-
-    # --- core orchestrator ---
-
-    def test_epic_pipeline_exists(self):
-        path = ROOT / "scripts" / "know_thy_father" / "epic_pipeline.py"
-        self.assertTrue(path.exists(), "epic_pipeline.py must exist on main")
-
-    def test_epic_pipeline_has_phases(self):
-        mod = self._load_module(
-            ROOT / "scripts" / "know_thy_father" / "epic_pipeline.py",
-            "ktf_epic_pipeline",
-        )
-        self.assertTrue(hasattr(mod, "PHASES"), "PHASES list must be defined")
-        self.assertGreaterEqual(len(mod.PHASES), 4, "at least 4 phases required")
-
-    # --- phase scripts ---
-
-    def test_phase1_media_indexing_exists(self):
-        self.assertTrue(
-            (ROOT / "scripts" / "know_thy_father" / "index_media.py").exists(),
-            "phase1 script index_media.py must exist",
-        )
-
-    def test_phase2_analyze_media_exists(self):
-        self.assertTrue(
-            (ROOT / "scripts" / "twitter_archive" / "analyze_media.py").exists(),
-            "phase2 script analyze_media.py must exist",
-        )
-
-    def test_phase3_synthesize_kernels_exists(self):
-        self.assertTrue(
-            (ROOT / "scripts" / "know_thy_father" / "synthesize_kernels.py").exists(),
-            "phase3 script synthesize_kernels.py must exist",
-        )
-
-    def test_phase4_crossref_audit_exists(self):
-        self.assertTrue(
-            (ROOT / "scripts" / "know_thy_father" / "crossref_audit.py").exists(),
-            "phase4 script crossref_audit.py must exist",
-        )
-
-    # --- documentation ---
-
-    def test_pipeline_docs_exist(self):
-        self.assertTrue(
-            (ROOT / "docs" / "KNOW_THY_FATHER_MULTIMODAL_PIPELINE.md").exists(),
-            "pipeline documentation must exist",
-        )
-
-    def test_verification_doc_exists(self):
-        self.assertTrue(
-            (ROOT / "docs" / "issue-582-verification.md").exists(),
-            "issue-582-verification.md must exist",
-        )
-
-    # --- test coverage ---
-
-    def test_pipeline_tests_exist(self):
-        tests = [
-            "test_know_thy_father_pipeline.py",
-            "test_know_thy_father_index.py",
-            "test_know_thy_father_synthesis.py",
-            "test_know_thy_father_crossref.py",
-        ]
-        for name in tests:
-            self.assertTrue(
-                (ROOT / "tests" / name).exists(),
-                f"test file {name} must exist",
-            )
-
-    def test_archive_tests_exist(self):
-        archive_dir = ROOT / "tests" / "twitter_archive"
-        self.assertTrue(
-            (archive_dir / "test_ktf_tracker.py").exists(),
-            "test_ktf_tracker.py must exist",
-        )
-        self.assertTrue(
-            (archive_dir / "test_analyze_media.py").exists(),
-            "test_analyze_media.py must exist",
-        )
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    unittest.main()

tests/test_predictive_resource_allocator.py

@@ -99,6 +99,17 @@ class TestComputeRates:
         _, _, surge, _, _ = compute_rates(rows, horizon_hours=6)
         assert surge < 1.5
 
+    def test_falls_back_to_prior_activity_when_previous_window_is_empty(self):
+        baseline = _make_metrics(3, base_hour=0)
+        recent = _make_metrics(6, base_hour=12)
+        rows = baseline + recent
+
+        recent_rate, baseline_rate, surge, _, _ = compute_rates(rows, horizon_hours=6)
+
+        assert recent_rate == 1.0
+        assert baseline_rate == 0.5
+        assert surge == 2.0
+
 
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